After two solid quarters of rising stock prices, we had a minor pullback in the third quarter. Both stocks and bonds were down between 3-4%.
But you know what? That’s OK! Three months may feel like a long time, but when it comes to investing, it is most assuredly “short term”. In most cases, we should focus exclusively on longer term returns (e.g. 10 years and beyond) as this can help reduce the feeling of being on a roller coaster all the time.
Take a look at the chart below. As you extend the time frame, you tend to see less “up-and-down” in annualized stock returns. This is simply because over long periods of time, the noisy data gets smoothed out and you are left with the long-term trend of markets. As investors, we play to our strengths when we focus on the long-term trend and ignore the noise.
What’s up with this economy?
If you asked the average American how they feel about the economy today, you will likely get one of the following responses:
“Awful”
“Terrible”
“The worst I’ve ever seen”
In economist-speak, this is known as “negative sentiment”. And most of this negative sentiment is driven by one thing… inflation. Objectively speaking, the economy isn’t doing that bad, it’s more just in a weird spot. Unemployment is low. GDP growth continues to chug along. The housing market is holding up fairly well. And indicators of financial stress remain relatively benign. But for most people, all of that pales in comparison to how much it costs to buy a dozen eggs, insure their car, or buy back-to-school supplies.
Higher inflation also coincided with both a global pandemic, which put a huge amount of financial/emotional/cognitive stress on households, and a drastic increase in interest rates, which has decimated housing affordability and increased costs on debt products such as car loans and credit cards.
And the political environment isn’t helping. A potential government shut down has dominated the news cycle over the past month or so. Thankfully, the folks in Congress managed to kick the can down the road for another 45 days. But at that point, we’ll be right back into the drama.
How this all plays out over the next couple years will be interesting. People and businesses value stability or at least a feeling of stability. But COVID/inflation/rates/politics really threw a wrench in the status quo, and I imagine it will take a few more years for people and policymakers to adjust to the new dynamic.
As investors, this all just means that uncertainty is still alive and well. All we can really do is focus on our “zone of control”, which includes things like managing our emotions, keeping costs low, and avoiding mistakes.
Financial planning updates
There has not been much in the way of major financial planning updates over the past few months.
A couple minor changes include:
The IRS extended the cutoff for high earning employees to make pre-tax “catch-up” contributions to their 401(k) plans. Congress forced a switch to Roth catch-up contributions in 2024, but the IRS extended this to 2026 due to push back from many retirement plan sponsors and record keepers.
The IRS extended the forgiveness period for RMDs associated with inherited IRAs. We are still awaiting finalized guidance from the IRS on how to properly handle RMDs for inherited IRAs going forward. (see more here)
Matthew Jenkins is the Founder of Noble Hill Planning LLC. Matthew has over 15 years of experience working in both large and small financial services firms. Before starting his career in finance, Matthew served as a U.S. Army Ranger. Matthew values transparency and fair dealing and enjoys helping people prepare for a great retirement.
Market Commentary 3Q 2023
After two solid quarters of rising stock prices, we had a minor pullback in the third quarter. Both stocks and bonds were down between 3-4%.
But you know what? That’s OK! Three months may feel like a long time, but when it comes to investing, it is most assuredly “short term”. In most cases, we should focus exclusively on longer term returns (e.g. 10 years and beyond) as this can help reduce the feeling of being on a roller coaster all the time.
Take a look at the chart below. As you extend the time frame, you tend to see less “up-and-down” in annualized stock returns. This is simply because over long periods of time, the noisy data gets smoothed out and you are left with the long-term trend of markets. As investors, we play to our strengths when we focus on the long-term trend and ignore the noise.
What’s up with this economy?
If you asked the average American how they feel about the economy today, you will likely get one of the following responses:
In economist-speak, this is known as “negative sentiment”. And most of this negative sentiment is driven by one thing… inflation. Objectively speaking, the economy isn’t doing that bad, it’s more just in a weird spot. Unemployment is low. GDP growth continues to chug along. The housing market is holding up fairly well. And indicators of financial stress remain relatively benign. But for most people, all of that pales in comparison to how much it costs to buy a dozen eggs, insure their car, or buy back-to-school supplies.
Higher inflation also coincided with both a global pandemic, which put a huge amount of financial/emotional/cognitive stress on households, and a drastic increase in interest rates, which has decimated housing affordability and increased costs on debt products such as car loans and credit cards.
And the political environment isn’t helping. A potential government shut down has dominated the news cycle over the past month or so. Thankfully, the folks in Congress managed to kick the can down the road for another 45 days. But at that point, we’ll be right back into the drama.
How this all plays out over the next couple years will be interesting. People and businesses value stability or at least a feeling of stability. But COVID/inflation/rates/politics really threw a wrench in the status quo, and I imagine it will take a few more years for people and policymakers to adjust to the new dynamic.
As investors, this all just means that uncertainty is still alive and well. All we can really do is focus on our “zone of control”, which includes things like managing our emotions, keeping costs low, and avoiding mistakes.
Financial planning updates
There has not been much in the way of major financial planning updates over the past few months.
A couple minor changes include:
Matthew P. Jenkins, CFA, CFP®
Matthew Jenkins is the Founder of Noble Hill Planning LLC. Matthew has over 15 years of experience working in both large and small financial services firms. Before starting his career in finance, Matthew served as a U.S. Army Ranger. Matthew values transparency and fair dealing and enjoys helping people prepare for a great retirement.
Matthew is a CFA® Charterholder and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional. He is also a member of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) and the Fee Only Network.